The problem with anyone favoring any date thinking they can determine exactly when all the events of the first two chapters of Luke happened by determining when the Course of Abia/Abija served is that all our information is spotty.
The Hebrew Bible talks about the 24 Courses of the Priesthood only in 1 Chronicles 24 where it only established that there were 24 and gives each one a name and a number, it doesn't say for how long each one served or when And then all Luke chapter 1 itself clarified is that each course has more then one day in verse 23.
It is Josephus in Antiquities 7.14.7 who says they served a week changing over on The Sabbath. But it's The Talmud Tact Taanith that says Jehoiarib was serving when The Temple was destroyed on the 9th of Av both times.
Even if both those sources are correct there are different interpretations of what implications they have for each other. Like was there a method to make it so each course consistently serve about the same time of year each year or did it drift meaning Jehoiarib wasn't always serving on the 9th of Av?
And even then there are a lot of assumptions being made by those who think we can calculate Luke's narrative to the day. Like the fact that pregnancy being 280 days or 9 months and 10 days is not counted by the exact moment of "conception" (which itself isn't really a single moment) but the start of the mother's monthly cycle in which she became pregnant. And while 280 is the expected standard being born a little early or late isn't unheard of.
However if the Talmudic Tradition mentioned above does go back to accurate memories of who was serving when The Second Temple was destroyed, then it may have also been known to Early Christians who we see even in late chapters of Acts still worshiped in The Temple area and I believe even after 70 AD there was more cultural contact and exchange between Early Christians and Jews then many assume.
Abijah served 7 weeks after Jehoiarib meaning Early Christians would have had good reason to presume the course of Abijah was serving on the 29th of Elul and thus the week of their course with the end of Elul and maybe start of Tishri. (I'm suddenly tempted to wonder if that has something to do with the 29th of September becoming Michaelmas, but Gabriel would be the Angel to reference for this Biblical Story.)
So based on Luke 1:23-24 they would have felt they had good reason to roughly identify Tishi the Seventh Month of The Biblical Calendar with the first Month of Elizabeth's Pregnancy. The Annunciation and Visitation happened during the Sixth Month of Elizabeth's Pregnancy in verse 26 which would be roughly Adar. And thus they would have had good reason to conclude Jesus was conceived in March or early April, and Nine months from that is December or Early January.
Which could reinforce other reasons they might have had to associate Christmas with Hanukkah. After all Hanukkah is (when there isn't a Second Adar) about 280 days after Purim.
But I do have my skepticism of those Talmudic Traditions. Josephus however came form a Priestly family and grew up while the Second Temple was standing so I trust what he says does reflect at least how first century Second Temple Judaism was doing things.
If there was a system to keep them consistent all year, I feel it's safe to assume Jehoiarib the first course would be serving the first week of Nisan/Aviv. It would take 168 days for all 24 Courses to have each served once meaning Jehoiaiab would start serving again on the 19th day of the sixth month which would be Elul. But some have theorized the Pilgrimage Festivals (at least the week long ones) would be separate from the Course system since all the Priests would have been present, that would start the second course of Jehoiarib on the 26th or 17th of Elul.
That would put Abijah's first course of the year on the 50th-56th days of the year or 20th-26th of Iyar, unless the Unleavened Bread Pilgrimage festival interrupts things then it's the 57th of Iyar through the 3rd of Sivan. Five months later that could oddly work for placing the Annunciation near Halloween and the Nativity in August.
However the second Course of Abijah would then be the 9th through 16th of the Eight Month, possibly making the Eight Month Elizabeth's First Month and thus her sixth month either Nisan/Aviv or Second Adar which comes right back around to supporting a Hanukkah or 10th of Tevet Nativity, because Aviv as Mary's First Month perfectly fits Zola Levitt's theory about the Torah Holy Days and the Gestation Cycle.
But as I said before we can't know for certain. The information we have here can and has been tortured to make any model work. But two of the quickest conclusions one can come to lend themselves to justifying a near the Winter Solstice Nativity.
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