Earlier this year in my post on Age of Consent and Adulthood I argued against using Luke 2:42 as evidence for in any sense considering Adulthood to begin at age Twelve. And while doing so suggested that maybe the Passover of this story is the first Passover after Herod Archelaus was removed in AD 6.
Again, it's a big IF on even assuming Jesus wasn't brought with for prior Passovers, but if it is the intent to imply this is the first time they brought Jesus with, it's notable to remember that Matthew 2:22 Archelaus being in power was the reason they didn't want to bring Jesus to Jerusalem.
It seems that some place the removal Archelaus very early in AD 6 having that year's Passover be the one that happens after his removal. Remembering that there is no year Zero that counts us backwards to a Nativity in 8 or 7 BC. But if it was instead the Passover of AD 7 then that puts the Nativity in 7 or 6 BC. Either way fits the Census of Luke 2:1-2 being the 8 BC Census when Saturninus was governor of Syria as Tertullian claimed.
I haven't made up my mind on the Chronology of The Incarnation yet, this is just one possibility I'm considering.
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